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Deutsche Bank cuts baseline market forecast and sees S&P 500 at 3,000 if there’s a recession

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Stocks could be in for much more pain ahead if a recession is imminent, according to Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha. The bank’s chief U.S. equity and global strategist said in a note Wednesday evening that the S & P 500 could tumble all the way down to 3,000 if the U.S. economy falls into a recession in the near future. That’s 23.5% below the index’s Wednesday close of 3,923.68. Recession fears have been kicked into high gear this week, after back-to-back earnings reports from Walmart and Target showed the retailers were struggling with higher costs and consumers were pulling back on some discretionary purchases. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will keep raising rates to quell the recent inflationary surge. “Inflation is proving sticky and the Fed’s forward guidance is for a rate hiking cycle that has historically ended in recession more often than not (8 of 11 or 73% of the time), with the Fed acknowledging and accepting this risk,” Chadha said. Chadha’s base case is not for an imminent recession, but the strategist did trim his year-end S & P 500 target to 4,750 from 5,250. The new target implies upside of 21% from Wednesday’s close. “Our baseline view, in line with our current house economics view, is for no recession imminently, with a relief rally recouping the prior peak by year-end, but a protracted selloff late in the cycle risks a slide into a self-fulfilling recession,” he said.

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